# Why This?

As we near voting season for 2024, there has been a large amount of online political tension in the past four years, which I hope translates to more people voting this year. To understand if this logic made sense, I turned to 2020 to see if there was a significant increase in voter turnout over 2016.

# Creating a Hypothesis

To do hypothesis testing, we need a hypothesis (Hₐ) and a null hypothesis (H₀)

My hypothesis (Hₐ) is that there was an increase in voter turnout in 2020 over 2016. As a result, the null hypothesis (H₀) is that voter turnout in 2020 was the same as in 2016.

We also have a threshold for data significance (⍺) of 0.05

# The Data

I scoured the internet for voter turnout, and after days of work found the US Election Project. A site dedicated to tracking The United States of America's elections. I then compiled it into what you see below.

If you are having trouble viewing the spreadsheet, you can access it here.

# What Does This Mean?

To understand if there is significant data to support this hypothesis, we must first find the z-score. The z-score is a marker on a spectrum of primarily -3.4 to 3.4. This can be translated into a p-value, to indicate on a scale of 0 to 1 where this data stands.

# Let's Calculate It

To get the z-score, we use the formula:

Where x is the sample mean (2020), μ is the population mean (2016), σ is the standard deviation, and n is the sample size. Filling in these values results in the following results:

This can be rounded to 6.74, which if we look at a p-value chart is above the values of the chart, which means that the p-value is about 1. However, because the z-value is positive, the data is right-tailed, and we must subtract the p-value from 1. This is 1-~1, which is equal to about 0

# Conclusion

This p-value is less than 0.01 (right tailed), so we can conclude that there is highly significant evidence to back up my hypothesis. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis.

# Let's Speculate

# Sources

https://www.electproject.org/election-data/voter-turnout-data

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-announces-2016-presidential-campaign-make-country/story

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/25/defending-vital-u-s-interests-policy-prescriptions-for-trump/

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-identifies-another-hoax-the-coronavirus-152649383.html

# Sources

https://www.electproject.org/election-data/voter-turnout-data

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-announces-2016-presidential-campaign-make-country/story

https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/25/defending-vital-u-s-interests-policy-prescriptions-for-trump/

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-identifies-another-hoax-the-coronavirus-152649383.html